Past and Future Extreme Weather Events

Historical and Potential Future Extreme Weather Events in Columbus

Last updated October 10, 2024

A discussion on past and predicted future extreme weather events is à propos considering the recent destruction caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Extreme weather events that impact the inland Southeastern United States (SEUS) region are extreme heat, heavy precipitation, drought, tropical storms, and tornados. Here is provided a regional and local overview of past extreme weather events and what may potentially be the costliest future weather especially as related to climate change.

Extreme Heat

Extreme heat is the top weather-related cause of mortality in the United States annually.1 The Southeastern United States (SEUS) experienced the least increases in warming as compared with other parts of the US during the period of 1901-1960, but since 1960 temperatures have increased in the SEUS at an increased pace matching that of the rest of the US.2

Using data from the Columbus Metropolitan Airport (WBAN: 93842, Lat/Long 32.5161°, -84.9422°) weather station, and comparing the most recent 30-year period (1991-2000) to the 30-year period before (1961-1900), every month has seen average temperature increase over time and both might-time and day-time temperatures have increased.

Columbus temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the future with the number of days over 100°F increasing by 54 more days a year by mid-century if no actions are taken on climate change.1 

Heavy Precipitation

Overall, most the region SEUS has experienced an increase in precipitation since 1950 with most the heavy precipitation days (those with 3 or more inches of rainfall) occurring in the last three decades. High precipitation events have already damaged infrastructure, businesses, homes, caused power outages, and economic loss.3

The average monthly precipitation for the 1961-1990 and the 1991-2020 periods were calculated looking at monthly averages. Columbus currently has an annual precipitation of 48.8 inches, which is a 2.2-inch decrease over the two 30-yeard periods. However, the last decade (2011 to 2020) has seen a 1.3-inch increase in annual rainfall over the 1961-1900 period. Precipitation increased in the late summer and fall months (August through November) and decreased every other month of the year (figure below).

Since 1931 (earliest available local data), there have been 120 rainfall events with 3 or more inches of rainfall in Columbus. The decade with the heaviest rainfall events was the most recent (2011 to 2020) with 22 events occurring. Extreme precipitation is expected to increase due to the warming associated with climate change.3

Thunderstorms

The weather events associated with thunderstorms, like tornados and thunderstorm winds, are anticipated to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, especially in the spring months (March, April, May) in the SEUS.4,5

Research has confirmed a geographical change in tornado occurrences with increased numbers of tornadoes occurring in the SEUS in recent decades.4,6 The number of tornadoes per day is increasing (considered high-frequency days), and tornado occurrence is more often located to the eastern part of the US on high-frequency days. 6,7

The National Climate Data Center data was used to look at all past tornado and thunderstorm wind occurrences for the years from 1950 to 2023 (this is all the data available) for the Columbus area. A total of 16 tornadoes have occurred within Columbus city limits during the period of 1950 to 2022. The 1953 tornado caused the only deaths (2) and most injuries (300) attributed to this type of weather event in the county. The F-Scale 3 incident was the second most costly regarding property damage. The costliest tornado occurred in 2007 and was considered a F-scale 2 event. The additional damages can be attributed to longer path length and more urban development that transpired between the 54 years. For the Columbus area, the months of March and April historically see the most tornadic events, followed by May and November.

For the period of years from 1950 to 2023, 200 thunderstorm wind events transpired in Columbus. Over twice as many events took place during the 1991-2020 timeframe (127 events) as compared with the 1961-1990 period (60 events). About one-fifth of these events saw wind speeds above 60 mph.

Hurricanes

Tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase due to climate change warming and moisture content increase.8 The Historical Hurricane Tracks database developed by NOAA's Office of Coastal Management was used to determine the dates of tropical cyclones that passed within 50 miles of Columbus. Data was available from 1851 to 2022.   

Since 1851, 45 tropical cyclones have passed within 50 miles of Columbus. Notably, two 30-year periods experienced higher levels of tropical cyclone activity, 1901-1930 and 1991-2020, both saw 12 events. Given the warming period experienced in Georgia in the first 30 years of the 20th century (Frankson et al., 2022), it can be intuited that cyclone activity would increase. After the cooling period in 1960s, Georgia has experienced rising temperatures, the greatest 5-year interval occurring from 2016-2020. Columbus had 9 more cyclones pass within 50 miles of the city in the most recent 30-year period as compared with 1961-1990.

The highest frequency of the events occurred in September followed by August and October. The strongest named hurricane passed through Columbus in 2017, Hurricane Irma, having been downgraded to a tropical storm with winds speeds of 40 mph.

Sources

1 National Weather Service. Heat: A major killer. Retrieved December 10, 2019 from https://www.weather.gov/grb/heat.

2 Hayhoe, K., D.J. Wuebbles, D.R. Easterling, D.W. Fahey, S. Doherty, J. Kossin, W. Sweet, R. Vose, and M. Wehner, 2018: Our Changing Climate. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 72–144. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH2

3 Carter, L., A. Terando, K. Dow, K. Hiers, K.E. Kunkel, A. Lascurain, D. Marcy, M. Osland, and P. Schramm, 2018: Southeast. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 743–808. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH19

4 Gensini, V. A., & Mote, T. L. (2015). Downscaled estimates of late 21st century severe weather from CCSM3. Climatic Change, 129(1), 307-321.

5 Hoogewind, K. A., Baldwin, M. E., & Trapp, R. J. (2017). The impact of climate change on hazardous convective weather in the United States: Insight from high-resolution dynamical downscaling. Journal of Climate, 30(24), 10081-10100.Howe, P., Mildenberger, M., Marlon, J., & Leiserowitz, A. (2015) “Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA,” Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2583.

6 Moore, T. W. (2017). On the temporal and spatial characteristics of tornado days in the United States. Atmospheric Research, 184, 56-65.

7 McCarthy, D., & Schaefer, J. (2004). 3.4 Tornado trends over the past thirty years. In Proceedings of the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology.

8 Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., ... & Zhou, B. (2021). Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2.